7 Crucial Points About the 2024 US Presidential Election

Akash Deep -

1. What is an October Surprise?

An October surprise refers to a bombshell news event that emerges in the days leading up to the traditionally held November presidential elections. These events often seem designed to sway the election's outcome and have historically changed the tides of elections.

2. How Does Allan Lichtman Predict the Election Outcome?

Presidential historian Allan Lichtman uses a unique model based on 13 key factors to make his forecasts. He has never changed his prediction in response to an October surprise and confidently declares that no last-minute twists will shake his prediction that Kamala Harris will triumph over Donald Trump.

3. What Are the Key Factors in Lichtman's Model?

Lichtman's model includes 13 true or false questions that gauge the big picture of incumbent governance in strength. Currently, eight of these keys are in favor of Kamala Harris, while only three are for Donald Trump.

4. How Does the Competition Look in Swing States?

The competition is extremely tight in crucial battleground states, where neither candidate has a lead greater than three percentage points in any of the seven states. Currently, Kamala Harris holds a slight national polling average lead at 49%, while Donald Trump trails closely behind at 47%.

5. What Role Could Hurricane Helene Play in the Election?

Hurricane Helene has caused significant damage in North Carolina and Georgia, two critical states for Donald Trump. Kamala Harris has committed to providing long-term support to the affected areas, which could potentially sway voter dissatisfaction regarding recovery efforts.

6. How Might International Crises Impact the Election?

The ongoing Middle East conflict and potential involvement of the US could significantly impact public opinion. Additionally, a strike by dockworkers may exacerbate inflation, further complicating the election landscape.

7. What Are the Potential Risks for Both Candidates?

For Kamala Harris, the perception that post-pandemic normalcy has not been achieved could be a significant risk. For Donald Trump, renewed scrutiny of his actions post-2020 election could lead some voters to reevaluate his suitability for the presidency.