With just over a month left until the U.S. presidential election on November 5, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains intensely competitive. The election landscape has been significantly altered since President Joe Biden ended his campaign in July and endorsed Harris.
National Polls
National polls indicate that Harris is marginally ahead of Trump. A recent average of national surveys shows Harris leading Trump by around 3-5 percentage points. For instance, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found Harris leading Trump 47% to 42%, while a NBC News poll showed Harris with a 5-point lead, 49% to 44%.
Despite these leads, the polls suggest that the debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 did not significantly alter voting intentions. While a majority of viewers felt Harris won the debate, her performance did not translate into a substantial increase in support.
Battleground States
The race is particularly tight in the seven battleground states, which are crucial for securing the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. In states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the polls show a margin of less than one percentage point between the two candidates. Pennsylvania, in particular, is key due to its high number of electoral votes.
In other battleground states, such as Nevada, Harris holds a stronger lead with 52% of the vote to Trump's 45%. However, in Georgia, the two candidates are tied at 49% each. Harris also maintains a slim lead in Michigan and Arizona.
Demographics and Voter Sentiment
Harris enjoys strong support among certain demographics, including Black voters, younger voters, and women. She leads Trump by significant margins among these groups, with an 85%-7% lead among Black voters and a 12-point lead among women.
However, Trump maintains a lead among men and white voters without college degrees. The economy and inflation remain major concerns for voters, with Trump holding an advantage on these issues, although his leads have diminished since Biden's withdrawal from the race.
Reliability of Polls
Pollsters are cautious about predicting the outcome due to the close margins and historical inaccuracies in polling. In both the 2016 and 2020 elections, polls underestimated support for Trump. Efforts are being made to adjust polling methods to better reflect the voting population, but uncertainties remain about voter turnout and other factors.
As the election approaches, the stability and consistency of the polls suggest a highly competitive and unpredictable race. The final weeks of the campaign will be crucial in determining which candidate will emerge victorious.
