As the Haryana Assembly elections approach, scheduled for October 5, the political landscape in the state is marked by a intense and multi-cornered contest. Here’s a detailed look at the key players, their strategies, and the factors that could influence the outcome.
Congress Eyes Comeback After 10 Years
The Congress, buoyed by its performance in the 2024 general elections, is optimistic about making a comeback in Haryana after a decade out of power. The party has released a detailed manifesto, promising a range of welfare measures including a commission for farmers' welfare, ₹2 crore for families of martyred soldiers, and the promotion of labour-intensive units to generate employment.
Haryana Congress chief Udai Bhan, Leader of Opposition Bhupinder Singh Hooda, and former Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot were among the leaders present during the manifesto launch. Rahul Gandhi, Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, has assured that the Congress's "incoming government" will end "the decade of pain" in Haryana and fulfill the hopes and aspirations of the people.
BJP Faces Anti-Incumbency and Internal Challenges
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), facing 10 years of anti-incumbency, is battling on multiple fronts. The party is dealing with protests from farmers, wrestlers, and Agniveers, which could dent its voter base. Additionally, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has targeted the Congress during a rally in Hisar, highlighting internal conflicts within the party, particularly the perceived rivalry between Bhupinder Singh Hooda and his son Deepender Singh Hooda for the Chief Minister's post.
The BJP is also focusing on its performance over the last 10 years, emphasizing job creation and welfare schemes rather than relying solely on the Modi factor. State BJP leaders are banking on caste arithmetic, aiming to consolidate non-Jat communities and split Dalit votes.
Role of 'Others' and Smaller Parties
The election is not just a bipolar contest between the Congress and the BJP. Smaller parties and alliances are set to play a crucial role, potentially emerging as kingmakers in the event of a hung assembly. The Indian National Lok Dal-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance, the Jannayak Janta Party-Azad Samaj Party alliance, and the Aam Aadmi Party are all fielding candidates on most of the 90 seats. Other smaller parties like Gopal Kanda’s Haryana Lokhit Party also have influence in certain areas.
The INLD-BSP alliance hopes to recover lost ground by channeling Jat anger and securing a portion of the Dalit community votes. The JJP, which had a strong debut in 2019 with 10 seats and a 15% vote share, is struggling to maintain its support base due to its post-poll alliance with the BJP. The JJP has allied with Chandrasekhar Azad's Azad Samaj Party to woo young Dalit voters.
Close Contests and Voter Sentiment
The elections are expected to be closely contested, with a significant number of seats seeing margins of less than 10%. In 2009 and 2019, Haryana's voters gave marginally fractured mandates, with the Congress and the BJP winning 40 seats each, respectively. A swing of just 5% in voter sentiment could change the fortunes in many seats.
Voters in key battleground areas like Kurukshetra and Karnal indicate that while the Congress appears to be ahead, the BJP is not out of the contest. Local issues such as job creation, welfare schemes, and infrastructure development are likely to influence voter decisions.
Manifesto Promises and Policy Initiatives
The Congress manifesto includes several policy initiatives aimed at addressing key issues in Haryana. These include setting up a backward class welfare commission, increasing the creamy layer limit for OBCs from ₹6 lakh to ₹10 lakh, and framing strict laws to prevent mob lynching and hate crimes. The party has also promised to shut down the Parivar Pehchan Patra (PPP) or the family ID portal, a flagship programme of the BJP government, and to review other portals that have caused hardships to the public.
In contrast, the BJP is highlighting its achievements over the last decade, including increasing the annual income limit for the creamy layer among OBCs and announcing various sops for government employees and panchayat chiefs.
Conclusion
The Haryana Assembly elections are poised to be a highly competitive and multi-cornered contest. With the Congress aiming to capitalize on anti-incumbency and the BJP focusing on its governance record, smaller parties and alliances could hold the key to forming the next government. As voters prepare to cast their ballots on October 5, the outcome remains uncertain, reflecting the complex and dynamic nature of Haryana's electoral landscape.
