Israeli intelligence has long been renowned for its exceptional capabilities and strategic prowess. However, the events of October 7, 2023, significantly impacted this reputation. The Hamas attack on Israel led to a series of failures and resignations within the intelligence community, including the director-general of Aman and the commander of Unit 8200. This article delves into the current state of Israeli intelligence, its efforts to rebuild its reputation, and the ongoing challenges in the Middle East.
1. The Aura of Israeli Intelligence Before October 7, 2023
Prior to October 7, 2023, Israeli intelligence enjoyed an unparalleled aura of respect and fear. Its dramatic operations were the stuff of legend, often dramatized in Hollywood movies. The Shin Bet, Israel's internal security service, and Aman, its military intelligence agency, were known for their bold operations and long reach. However, this reputation was severely tested during the Hamas attack.
On October 7, when Shin Bet considered the possibility of an impending attack or attempted kidnapping, it sent a single elite intelligence team of just seven operatives to the Gaza border. This team was among the initial defenders fighting back against overwhelming odds. Several members of the team died in action during the early hours of the incursion. Despite multiple warnings from observers, including a women-only military unit posted on the southern borders and an Israeli civilian who had his equipment confiscated by the Ministry of Communications, Aman remained unconvinced that something new was afoot.
The warnings of the 'Devil's Advocate' team, established by the Israeli military following the 1973 war, were similarly rejected. This strategic culture had a tendency to ignore dissent, promote groupthink, and discount outside expertise. The recommendations of the Agranat Commission, which investigated the situation leading up to the 1973 war, were forgotten. This oversight contributed to the strategic failures on October 7.
Despite these weaknesses, Israel's spies had managed to punch far above their weight for decades. However, it is possible that their success in part bred overconfidence, contributing to the failure of October 7. The aftermath saw resignations and a significant reevaluation of Israel's intelligence apparatus.
2. Rebuilding Reputation: Operations Against Hezbollah
Following the darkest hour on October 7, 2023, Israeli intelligence began a relentless campaign of lethal success. Operations against Hezbollah and its Iranian backers offered an opportunity to rebuild the reputation of Israeli intelligence. Hezbollah and its Iranian backers had been the primary focus of Israeli intelligence for years, in stark contrast to the near neglect of Hamas.
Israel had scored successes such as stealing the Iranian nuclear archive, assassinating numerous Iranian nuclear scientists to delay their enrichment programs, and repeated strikes on Iranian weapons shipments via Syria. These actions were significant but small compared to the post-Oct. 7 demonstrations of Israeli intelligence prowess.
Palestinian militant leaders became chief targets for assassination, including Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy political head of Hamas. Hezbollah were also the targets of successful Israeli strikes. While the Mossad and Aman were on the offensive in Lebanon and Iran, Shin Bet was busy at home uncovering Hezbollah attempts to get even by assassinating significant Israeli figures, with possible targets reportedly including Moshe Yaalon, Aviv Kochavi, and even Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Shin Bet counterintelligence also uncovered an Iranian honeypot network aiming to collect intelligence and interdicted weapons smuggled to terrorist groups in the West Bank. The methodical and systematic decapitation of Hamas and Hezbollah likely contributed to a feeling among remaining militant Islamist leaders that Israel must always have them in its sights and will pull the trigger at a time of its choosing.
Beyond the violence, the resourcefulness and ingenuity of supply chain operations, along with the assassination campaign's ability to strike unexpectedly in previously considered 'secret' or 'safe' locations, likely conspire to create an impression that the Israeli intelligence community is even more powerful than it really is.
3. The Role of Intelligence in State Power
While Israel's success in manhunting, covert action, and supply chain operations have been clearly demonstrated, it is an open question if Israel's spies are also providing analytical insights that might aid policymakers in creating wise foreign policies. Assessing the restoration of any intelligence community also requires a consideration of intelligence assessment beyond the use of violence.
Without knowing what analytical judgments at the coalface of policy look like, any assessment must be careful. The broader application of intelligence as a lever of state power is crucial for understanding its full impact.
4. Leaked US Intelligence Documents Reveal Israel's Plans to Attack Iran
The recent leak of highly classified US intelligence documents detailing satellite imagery of Israeli military readiness for a potential strike against Iran has shed light on significant apprehensions within the US regarding Israel's intentions. These documents, originating from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), outline recent Israeli military exercises and operational readiness.
The documents describe satellite photos of an Israeli military exercise on October 15 in preparation for a potential retaliatory strike on Iran. One document titled 'Israel: Air Force Continues Preparations for Strike on Iran' outlines recent drills that seem to simulate aspects of a potential strike. The second document elaborates on Israel's repositioning of its missiles and weaponry in anticipation of possible Iranian retaliation.
The leak has prompted immediate concern within the US government. US officials are divided over the severity of the leak, with some downplaying its impact given that the documents do not reveal new American capabilities. Others, however, are alarmed by the exposure of Israel's sensitive military plans, particularly at a time of heightened tensions in the Middle East.
President Joe Biden, when asked during a recent trip to Germany whether he was aware of Israel's planned strike on Iran and its targets, responded affirmatively but declined to elaborate. His response suggested that he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might have come to a mutual understanding regarding target selection.
The exact source of the leak remains unknown, but early indications suggest that the documents may have been taken by a lower-level US government employee. A joint investigation by the Pentagon, U.S. intelligence agencies, and the FBI is underway to determine how the information was leaked and whether more documents could follow.
5. The Impact of Leaked Documents on U.S.-Israeli Relations
The leak of classified documents has likely provoked frustration among Israeli officials. Mick Mulroy, a deputy assistant secretary of defense and ex-CIA officer, remarked, 'If it is accurate that Israeli tactical plans to react to Iran's October 1 attack have been disclosed, it represents a significant violation.' Mulroy further noted that 'future cooperation between the U.S. and Israel may face challenges. Trust is crucial in this relationship, and depending on the circumstances surrounding the leak, that trust could be compromised.'
The National Security Council directed the National Security Agency and the Pentagon for further comments. Both agencies declined to provide statements. CNN has also reached out to the National Security Agency for input. Another U.S. official commented that 'while these two documents are concerning, they are not catastrophic. The real worry lies in the possibility of more documents surfacing.'
The circumstances under which the documents became public remain unclear, including whether they were hacked or intentionally leaked. U.S. intelligence agencies are already on heightened alert regarding Iranian hacking operations.
6. The Death of Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar and Its Implications
The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has highlighted Israel's long quest for deterrence in the region. Sinwar's demise was facilitated by a drone strike that revealed his hiding place among hostages. This operation underscores Israel's ability to gather intelligence and execute precise military actions.
Sinwar's death has been seen as a significant blow to Hamas, leading to internal power struggles and potential divisions within the organization. This development could impact future military operations and negotiations between Israel and Hamas.
The use of drones in this operation highlights the evolving nature of warfare in the Middle East. Drones have become increasingly sophisticated, allowing for more precise targeting and reduced collateral damage.
The incident also raises questions about the ethics of targeting leaders who hide among civilians. While such actions can be effective in disrupting enemy command structures, they also risk civilian casualties and moral dilemmas.
7. Conclusion
In conclusion, Israeli intelligence faces both challenges and opportunities in its quest to rebuild its reputation. The recent successes against Hezbollah and Hamas demonstrate its capabilities but also highlight the need for broader analytical insights to support wise foreign policies.
The leak of US intelligence documents regarding Israel's plans to attack Iran underscores the complexities of international relations and the importance of trust between allies. As tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, it is crucial for all parties involved to maintain open communication channels and adhere to ethical standards in their operations.
