Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Elections 2024: National Conference Secures Majority
The 2024 Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly elections concluded on October 1, 2024, after three phases of voting from September 18 to October 1. The results were announced on October 8, 2024, marking a significant shift in the political landscape of the region.
1. Election Overview
The elections were held in three phases to elect 90 members of the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly. The voter participation was high, with a turnout of 63.88%, as per the Election Commission of India.
The main contenders in the election were the Congress-National Conference alliance, the People's Democratic Party (PDP), and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This was the first assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir since 2014, following a gap of six years due to the collapse of the PDP-BJP regime in June 2018 and the subsequent abrogation of Article 370.
2. Election Results
The results of the election saw the National Conference (NC) emerge as the single largest party, winning 42 seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured 29 seats, while the Indian National Congress (INC) managed to win only six seats.
The INDIA coalition, comprising the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference, the Indian National Congress, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist), secured a majority of 49 seats, one more than the 48 needed to form a government. This alliance is expected to form the new government in Jammu and Kashmir.
President of the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference, Farooq Abdullah, stated that Omar Abdullah will be their nominee for Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir. The BJP conceded defeat and congratulated Omar Abdullah on October 8, 2024.
Four independent MLAs have pledged to support the incoming National Conference-led government, further solidifying their position to form the new administration.
3. Post-Election Developments
The post-election scenario has seen significant developments. The National Conference has expressed its willingness to collaborate with Mehbooba Mufti's PDP if necessary to form the government in the region.
Farooq Abdullah also criticized the move to grant the Lieutenant Governor the authority to nominate members to the five reserved seats in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly, stating that his party would challenge the decision in the Supreme Court if the BJP-led central government proceeds with it.
Heavy security arrangements were put in place at all 20 counting centers and district headquarters across Jammu and Kashmir to ensure smooth proceedings during the vote count.
Exit polls had predicted that the NC-Congress alliance would win the most seats, with the BJP expected to slightly improve its performance from the 2014 assembly elections. However, the PDP was predicted to secure fewer than 10 seats this time.
Newly emerging parties, such as the People's Conference, Apni Party, Democratic Azad Party led by Ghulam Nabi Azad, and the Awami Ittehad Party of Lok Sabha member Sheikh Abdul Rashid, were unlikely to make significant gains. Along with independents, these parties were projected to win a combined total of around 10 seats.
Key contests included Gandebral, where Omar Abdullah of the National Conference was running against Independent candidate Sarjan Ahmad Wagay, and Bijbehara, where Iltija Mufti of the PDP was fielded.
In Sopore, Aijaz Ahmad Guroo, brother of Parliament attack convict Afzal Guru, was contesting as an Independent. In Channapora, Syed Mohammad Altaf Bukhari from the JKAP was in the race. Baramulla saw Muzaffar Hussain Baig contesting as an Independent.
Kupwara had Sajad Lone from the People's Conference, while Handwara also had Sajad Lone from the People's Conference, along with Chaudhary Mohammad Ramzan.
The Lokniti-CSDS survey conducted around the time of the elections also supported the NC's strong performance, with the party emerging as the single largest party in Jammu and Kashmir.
The survey highlighted that the NC won 42 seats, while the BJP retained its stronghold in Jammu by winning 29 seats. The INC's performance was dismal, winning only six seats.
The post-poll survey was conducted by the Lokniti programme of CSDS between September 19 and October 6, interviewing a total of 2,614 respondents across 25 Assembly Constituencies and 99 polling stations of J&K.
The election results have significant implications for the political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir, marking a new chapter in the region's governance.