Josh Stein Leads Mark Robinson by Significant Margin in North Carolina Governor's Race

With less than two months until the November elections, Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein is maintaining a commanding lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in the North Carolina gubernatorial race. According to recent polls, Stein is favored by a significant margin, reflecting a trend that has been consistent across multiple surveys.

Polling Numbers

The latest WRAL News Poll shows Stein leading Robinson by 14 percentage points, with 51% of likely voters supporting Stein and 37% supporting Robinson, while 11% remain undecided. This gap has widened since March, when Stein held a narrower 44%-to-42% lead over Robinson. Similar results are echoed in other polls, including the Elon University Poll, which found Stein leading by 14 points with 49% of voters favoring him and 35% supporting Robinson.

Impact of Controversial Statements

Mark Robinson's campaign has been marred by controversy, particularly due to his comments on abortion. A video clip featured in an ad by Stein's campaign, where Robinson says, 'Abortion in this country is not about protecting the lives of mothers. It's about killing the child because you weren't responsible enough to keep your skirt down,' has had a significant impact. This statement has turned off many voters, especially women and moderate suburban voters, who are crucial in statewide elections.

The 'skirt' ad has been identified as one of the most effective messaging points against Robinson, with polls showing a decline in his support since the ad's release. Non-college educated women, including those who support former President Donald Trump, have been particularly turned off by Robinson's comments.

Gender Gap and Rural Voters

The polls also highlight a significant gender gap in the race. While Robinson leads among rural men, he trails by 10 points among rural women. This is unusual for a Democratic candidate, as rural areas typically lean Republican. However, Stein's campaign has managed to pull even with Robinson in rural areas, a significant shift from previous polls.

The issue of abortion restrictions remains a key priority for many voters, with 17% stating it is their highest priority and 49% considering it an important priority. The majority of voters favor decreased restrictions on abortion, which further complicates Robinson's stance on the issue.

Election Implications

Despite the current polling numbers, there is still a possibility that Robinson's support could firm up closer to the election. Historical trends show that Republican candidates in North Carolina have sometimes outperformed their polling numbers. For example, in the 2020 governor's race, Republican Dan Forest outperformed polls by around 7%.

The outcome of this governor's race is crucial, as it could influence the state's trifecta status and have broader implications for the national political landscape. North Carolina's governor's race is one of the most important and likely the most expensive of the 2024 election cycle.