In the round of 32 at the 2024 ATP Beijing tournament, Karen Khachanov faced off against Roberto Carballes Baena on Friday, September 27. The match, held on the hard courts of Beijing, saw Khachanov emerge victorious, reinforcing his strong odds going into the contest.
Match Overview
Khachanov, ranked significantly higher than his opponent, was favored to win the match. According to predictive analytics models, Khachanov had a 66% chance of beating Carballes Baena, based on 10,000 simulations. The Russian player, born on May 21, 1996, has been striving to regain his form after a tumultuous few months that saw him drop in the rankings.
Carballes Baena, a Spanish player born on March 23, 1993, has primarily played on clay courts and has limited success on hard surfaces. Despite this, he entered the main draw as a lucky loser after failing to qualify in the final qualifying round against Pavel Kotov.
Betting Odds and Predictions
The betting odds reflected Khachanov's dominance, with odds of $1.36 for him to win the match, compared to $3.20 for Carballes Baena. For the first set, Khachanov was also favored, with odds of $1.44 against Carballes Baena's $2.75.
Despite the odds, some analysts suggested that taking Carballes Baena to win could offer a betting edge due to the disparity between the model's probabilities and the current odds. However, the consensus remained that Khachanov was the more likely winner.
Recent Form and Performance
Khachanov's recent form has been mixed, with four wins and four losses in his last eight matches. He lost his opening match in Hangzhou last week against Bu in three tight sets. In contrast, Carballes Baena reached the quarterfinals in Hangzhou before losing to Zhang in straight sets.
The win against Carballes Baena marks a crucial step for Khachanov as he aims to stabilize his ranking and regain his top-10 status. The match highlighted Khachanov's adaptability and strength on hard courts, which will be key in his upcoming matches.
