As Tesla prepares to release its third-quarter delivery numbers, analysts and investors are anticipating a strong performance that could further boost the company's stock. The report, expected to be announced as early as Wednesday, October 3, 2024, is highly anticipated given the recent surge in Tesla's stock price.
Delivery Expectations
Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Tesla's third-quarter delivery numbers, with estimates suggesting the company will deliver around 461,000 electric vehicles globally. This figure would represent an increase from the second quarter's delivery of about 444,000 vehicles, although it would still fall short of the 466,000 EVs delivered in the same quarter last year.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy is even more bullish, predicting deliveries to exceed 470,000 units in Q3, which would easily beat consensus estimates. Levy's forecast is based on July data for global EV sales and August registration and production data from China. If realized, this would mark Teslas first quarterly result in 2024 with positive year-over-year growth.
Factors Driving Optimism
Several factors are contributing to the positive outlook. Strong demand in China is a significant driver, with analysts noting that Tesla is on track to achieve its best quarter ever in the Chinese market. The upcoming robotaxi event scheduled for October 10 is also generating excitement among investors.
Additionally, the lack of recent price cuts has alleviated margin pressures that had affected Tesla over the past year. Dan Ives at Wedbush predicts that Teslas margins may finally start to improve, which could further enhance the companys financial performance.
Cybertruck Sales Impact
The increasing sales of the Cybertruck are also a notable development. According to S&P Global Mobility data, Tesla sold over 5,000 Cybertrucks in July, with year-to-date sales reaching 17,722. Deutsche Bank estimates that Cybertruck sales could hit 13,500 in the third quarter, which, although only about 3% of overall sales, could be pivotal in determining whether Tesla exceeds or falls short of its overall delivery goals.
Stock Performance and Technical Analysis
Tesla's stock has shown significant strength in recent months, with a 32% gain in the third quarter of 2024. The stock broke above a multi-year downtrend line on above-average volume in early July and has since moved back above both the long-term downtrend line and the 200-week moving average. This technical strength is expected to continue if the delivery numbers meet or exceed expectations.
Key price levels to watch include the $265 area, which could present some resistance, and the $300 level, near prominent swing highs from 2021 and 2022. On the downside, the $225 level could provide support, aligning with significant price action from late 2022 to mid-2024.
With the third-quarter delivery report and the robotaxi event just around the corner, October promises to be an eventful month for Tesla. The company's ability to meet or exceed delivery expectations will be crucial in sustaining the current upward trend in its stock price.
