Texas State vs Troy Prediction: Odds, Picks, and Analysis for NCAAF Week 6

The Texas State Bobcats are set to face off against the Troy Trojans in a pivotal Sun Belt Conference matchup on Thursday, October 3, 2024. This game, scheduled to kick off at 7 p.m. ET at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Alabama, and broadcast on ESPNU, promises to be an exciting clash between two teams with differing fortunes this season.

Team Performance and Statistics

The Texas State Bobcats, currently standing at 2-2, are looking to bounce back from their last two losses. Despite their recent setbacks, the Bobcats have a potent offense, averaging 37.5 points per game and 451.8 total yards per game, which ranks 37th nationally. Quarterback Jordan McCloud has been a key figure, completing 97 of 140 passes for 1,141 yards with 12 passing touchdowns and three interceptions, along with 21 carries for 101 yards and two rushing touchdowns.

On the other hand, the Troy Trojans are struggling with a 1-4 record and a recent 13-9 loss to Louisiana-Monroe. Troy's offense has been underwhelming, averaging 21.4 points per game and 334.8 total yards per game, ranking 104th nationally. The Trojans' quarterback situation is complicated, with Goose Crowder out due to a shoulder injury and Tucker Kilcrease stepping in. Kilcrease has completed 8 of 15 passes for 130 yards and a touchdown, and has also rushed 21 times for 125 yards.

Betting Odds and Predictions

Texas State is currently favored by 13.5 points, with the over/under set at 57 points. The moneyline odds have Texas State at -532 and Troy at +387. The betting trends indicate that 69% of the bets and 67% of the money are on Troy to cover the spread, while 75% of the tickets and 84% of the cash are on the over.

Several analysts are leaning towards the over in this game due to the defensive vulnerabilities of both teams. Troy's defense ranks poorly, allowing 363.4 total yards per game and a 71.2% completion rate against them, which is 131st in the nation. Texas State's offense, led by quarterback Jordan McCloud, has been highly effective, especially in the passing game, where they rank 11th in completions per game and 17th in completion percentage.

Given the matchup, many predict that Texas State will dominate offensively. The Bobcats have a solid receiving corps, led by wide receivers Joey Hobert and Jaden Williams, who have been instrumental in their offensive success. The Trojans' defense, particularly against the pass, has been a significant weakness, which Texas State is likely to exploit.

Injury Report and Key Players

Troy is dealing with several key injuries, including quarterback Goose Crowder, who is out with a shoulder injury, and wide receiver Chris Lewis, who is out with a leg injury. Offensive lineman Eli Russ is also listed as out with an undisclosed injury. These absences could further weaken Troy's already struggling offense.

For Texas State, the focus will be on maintaining their offensive momentum. Receiver Devonte Ross, who leads the team with 28 catches for 408 yards and six touchdowns, will be a key player to watch. The Bobcats' ability to move the ball effectively through the air and capitalize on Troy's defensive weaknesses will be crucial to their success.

Matchup Analysis and Best Bets

The matchup analysis suggests that Texas State's offense will be the deciding factor. With their strong passing game and the vulnerabilities in Troy's defense, the Bobcats are likely to score heavily. The recommendation is to take Texas State to cover the spread and to bet on the over, given the expected high-scoring nature of the game.

Historically, Troy has dominated the series, winning eight consecutive games and holding a 12-1 all-time record against Texas State. However, this season's performance suggests that Texas State has a strong chance of breaking this streak.

For those interested in the broader context of college football and its betting landscape, understanding the point spread and other betting metrics can be crucial in making informed decisions.

In conclusion, the Texas State vs Troy matchup promises to be an exciting and potentially high-scoring game. With Texas State's strong offense and Troy's defensive weaknesses, the odds favor the Bobcats to secure a victory.

Learn More at Direct Post.