As the college football season enters its fifth week, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons are set to host the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns on Saturday, September 28, 2024, at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Here’s a detailed look at the predictions, picks, odds, and key matchup analysis for this highly anticipated game.
Game Preview and Recent Performance
Wake Forest, currently standing at 1-2, is looking to bounce back from a dismal performance against Ole Miss, where they were decisively beaten. This loss was so severe that it led to Wake Forest paying the buyout to avoid the second game of the home-and-home series against Ole Miss next season.
On the other hand, Louisiana, with a 2-1 record, is aiming to recover from a hard-fought loss against Tulane. Despite the loss, the Ragin’ Cajuns have shown impressive offensive capabilities, particularly against stout defenses. For instance, they put up more yards on Tulane's defense than both Oklahoma and Kansas State, and scored just one point less than these teams.
Predictions and Picks
The betting odds favor Wake Forest slightly, with a -3.5 point spread and a total of 60.5 points. However, several analysts are leaning towards an upset by Louisiana.
According to predictions from Action Network, the Wake Forest defense has been underwhelming, ranking 129th in Defensive Success Rate and allowing nearly 500 yards of offense per game. This vulnerability is expected to be exploited by Louisiana's balanced attack, leading to a prediction that the Ragin’ Cajuns will win outright.
Similarly, a prediction from OurDavie suggests that while Wake Forest has a 63.1% chance to win based on the moneyline's implied probability, the game is expected to be close, with a projected score of Wake Forest 29, Louisiana 27. However, this source also notes that the Demon Deacons have not covered the spread when playing as at least 3.5-point favorites this year.
Quarterback Matchup
The quarterback play will be a crucial aspect of this game. Louisiana's Ben Wooldridge has been impressive, completing 59 of 86 passes for 735 yards, with a completion rate of 68.6% and six touchdown passes. Wooldridge's ability to manage the offense and limit turnovers will be key to the Ragin’ Cajuns' success.
Wake Forest's Hank Bachmeier has also shown leadership, completing 67 of 109 passes for 905 yards with a completion percentage of 61.5% and four touchdown passes without an interception. However, Bachmeier has faced significant pressure, suffering 10 sacks, and needs to improve his read-and-release to enhance Wake Forest’s offensive flow.
Betting Trends and Odds
Wake Forest holds a slight advantage at home, but their struggles against the spread, particularly when favored by at least 3.5 points, are noteworthy. The Demon Deacons have not covered the spread in such scenarios this year.
Louisiana, on the other hand, has a positive trend of performing well on the road, with a 4-2 record against the spread (ATS) in away games. This trend suggests that the Ragin’ Cajuns are capable of outperforming expectations, especially in challenging environments.
The current odds stand at:
- **Spread:** Louisiana +3.5 (-110), Wake Forest -3.5 (-110)
- **Total:** Over/Under 60
- **Moneyline:** Louisiana +145, Wake Forest -170.
Matchup Analysis
The matchup between these two teams is expected to be high-scoring, given the offensive capabilities of both sides. Wake Forest's defense, which has struggled to stop consistent gains in both the run and pass game, will face a significant test against Louisiana's balanced attack. The Ragin’ Cajuns' ability to exploit Wake Forest’s secondary and maintain a strong ground game could be decisive.
In conclusion, while Wake Forest has the home-field advantage and slightly better odds, the vulnerabilities in their defense and the strong performance of Louisiana's offense make this game highly competitive. The predictions lean towards a close and potentially high-scoring affair, with some analysts favoring an outright win for the Ragin’ Cajuns. Fans can catch the game on the ACC Network at 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, September 28, 2024.
