The 2024 United States presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most closely contested in recent history, with several key battleground states playing critical roles. Among these, Wisconsin stands out as a crucial swing state that has consistently proven to be a bellwether for national elections. In this article, we will delve into the current state of the election in Wisconsin, examining the factors that are influencing voter decisions and the strategies being employed by both Democratic and Republican campaigns.
1. Wisconsin's Electoral Significance
Wisconsin has been a pivotal state in recent presidential elections. In 2016, Donald Trump narrowly won the state by 0.77%, marking a significant upset in the Midwest and Rust Belt regions. However, in 2020, Democrat Joe Biden flipped the state back into the blue column by an even narrower margin of 0.63%. This near-even partisan lean makes Wisconsin a crucial battleground in 2024, with almost all major news organizations marking it as a tossup.
The state's 10 electoral votes are highly coveted, and both campaigns are pouring significant resources into Wisconsin. The last presidential candidate to win Wisconsin by double digits was Dwight D. Eisenhower, and the only candidates to carry the state by double digits after 1956 were Democrats Lyndon B. Johnson, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama.
2. Door County: A Swing County's Insights
Door County, located in northeastern Wisconsin, has been dubbed the 'ultimate political weathervane' due to its consistent trend of voting for the eventual presidential winner. In 2020, Joe Biden carried Door County by just 292 votesthe tightest margin in any Wisconsin county. This small county's voting patterns have become a focal point for both campaigns, as they seek to understand what drives voter decisions in this swing county.
According to local residents, Door County was traditionally Republican but has become increasingly diverse with the influx of transplants. This shift has led to a more balanced political landscape, making it a microcosm of Wisconsin's broader political dynamics. Republican Joel Kitchens, who represents Door County in the State Assembly, attributes the county's political volatility to its high percentage of positive responses to political issues, suggesting that voters are more open to different perspectives than in other parts of the state.
The director of the Marquette Law School poll, Charles Franklin, notes that polling errors in 2016 and 2020 were significant, particularly when accounting for Donald Trump's support. He attributes these errors to Trump's ability to mobilize specific cohorts of voters who drop out of the electorate during midterms but return for presidential elections.
3. Campaign Strategies in Wisconsin
For Democrats, the strategy in Wisconsin involves running up the numbers in Milwaukee and booming Dane County, home to Madison and the University of Wisconsin. In 2020, Biden won more than 75% of the vote in Dane County. Meanwhile, Democrats aim to stanch the bleeding in rural areas that have swung heavily towards Trump.
Ben Wikler, the state Democratic Party chair, emphasizes that Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes could tip the presidential election once again. He notes that Wisconsin was the state that decided the Electoral College for Donald Trump in 2016 and suggests that it could do so again in 2024.
On the Republican side, Brian Schimming, Wisconsin's Republican Party chair, is focused on identifying hidden Trump voters who have never participated in elections before. He believes there are hundreds of thousands of people in Wisconsin who think like Republicans but do not vote.
Schimming acknowledges that relying on low-propensity voters is risky but argues it is essential to engage them to secure victory. The Republican strategy also involves targeting specific demographics and mobilizing existing supporters to ensure maximum turnout.
4. Voter Engagement and Absentee Voting
Voter engagement is crucial in Wisconsin, particularly with the option for absentee voting. The MyVote WI website provides detailed instructions and resources for voters interested in casting their ballots by mail. For elections with federal contests, absentee ballots can be requested online, by email, by fax, or mailed until 5 p.m. on Election Day. For elections without federal contests, these deadlines are earlier at 5 p.m. the Friday before Election Day.
Wisconsin also encourages poll workers to help facilitate elections in their communities. The state counts all ballots on Election Day but can take up to 45 days to record data in the voter registration system.
5. Election Dates and Ballot Measures
Wisconsin has several key election dates in 2024. The spring primary is scheduled for February 20, followed by the presidential preference primary and spring general election on April 2. The fall primary will take place on August 13, culminating in the fall general election on November 5.
Additionally, Wisconsin voters will face several ballot measures during these elections. For example, Question 1 on April 2 aims to prohibit any level of government from applying or accepting non-governmental funds or equipment for election administration. Question 2 seeks to provide that only election officials designated by law may administer elections.
On November 5, voters will decide on a citizenship voting requirement amendment that would prohibit state and local governments from allowing noncitizens to vote.
6. Polling Data and Predictions
Polling data in Wisconsin is closely watched as it reflects broader national trends. As of October 2024, various polls show a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The 270ToWin poll indicates Trump leading by 0.4%, while RacetotheWH shows Harris ahead by 1.2%. The Hill/DDHQ and Silver Bulletin polls also suggest a narrow margin between the two candidates.
These polls underscore the unpredictability of Wisconsin's voters and highlight why both campaigns are investing heavily in the state. The outcome in Wisconsin could significantly influence the national election, making it a critical battleground to watch in 2024.
In conclusion, Wisconsin's role in the 2024 presidential election cannot be overstated. The state's history of swinging between Republican and Democratic victories makes it a microcosm of national political trends. By understanding Door County's unique dynamics and the broader strategies employed by both campaigns, we can better grasp who is winning the election in Wisconsinand potentially across the country.
