As the winter season of 2024/2025 approaches, the latest forecast models are painting a clear picture of what to expect in terms of snowfall across the United States, Canada, and Europe. A weak La Nia event in the Pacific is set to influence the winter weather patterns, leading to significant variations in snowfall predictions.
North America Snowfall Predictions
For North America, the forecasts indicate a mixed bag. The ECMWF and UKMO models suggest that most of the central, southern, and eastern United States will experience below-average snowfall, which is somewhat surprising given the typical patterns seen in a weak La Nia winter. However, the northwestern United States and parts of the northern U.S. are expected to see above-average snowfall. Canada is also forecast to receive more snow, particularly in the western and northern regions, with the exception of the far southeastern areas.
Breaking down the month-by-month predictions, November is expected to see increased snowfall over the western United States and western Canada, while December will bring more snow to the north-central United States and the upper Midwest. January is forecast to have a strong area of above-normal snowfall over the west and northwest of the United States, as well as much of Canada.
European Snowfall Outlook
In contrast to North America, Europe is expected to see below-average snowfall for the most part. The ECMWF model indicates that Scandinavia will be an exception, with more snowfall than normal due to the influence of a low-pressure system and the jet stream over northern Europe. The rest of the continent, including the Alps, is forecast to have reduced snowfall potential throughout the winter months.
Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts
NOAA's official winter temperature forecast for the United States shows colder temperatures likely in the northern parts of the country, while the southwestern and eastern regions are expected to experience warmer-than-normal weather. The precipitation forecast aligns with a classical La Nia pattern, with higher probabilities of more precipitation and snowfall over the northern half of the United States and drier conditions in the southern and southwestern regions.
The potential for a weaker stratospheric polar vortex could also play a significant role in the winter weather patterns. A weaker polar vortex can lead to a more dynamic winter, with increased chances of colder and snowier conditions over the United States and Canada.
